The Gender and Temperament Gaps we saw in our April poll are consistent. President Obama still commands a large lead over Governor Romney among women, Idealists, and Rationals. In fact, the only segment of the US voting population that favors Romney is Guardian men. The two candidates are evenly balanced among Artisan men.
We initially randomly surveyed 1000 adult US registered voters who are planning on voting in November between May 28 and June 1. The sample population was balanced according to US 2010 Census data by age group, gender, and geographic region. Our data showed such a wide gap between the two candidates that we ran the poll again during the week of June 5-10. The results of both polls were consistent. These results vary substantially from most current polls that show Obama and Romney virtually tied. But, we stand on our numbers – for our thoughts on why this gap exists, see our previous article: The Last Accurate Poll?
The poll results are presented below in 2 graph forms – bar graphs showing the results of the June 5-10 poll, and line charts showing the tracking from the first poll (May 28-June 1) to the second. We will continue to run our poll on a monthly basis (or ad hoc interim polls if events warrant), so the tracking graphs will show changes as we get closer to the election.
Question 1: If the election were to be held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
Participants were given 4 choices to this question: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Undecided, and Neither. As noted above Romney holds a narrow lead (44% – 42%) among Guardian males, and is tied with Obama (43% each) among Artisan men. He fares poorly to horribly among the other 6
groups, with his best showing with Guardian women where is is behind 46% – 34%. Overall, the chart to the right shows the splits by overall gender. The tracking chart shows that these numbers were steady from the last week of May through the second week of June.
Question 2: Do you personally like President Obama?
There were three answer choices: Yes, No, and Neither Like nor Dislike. President Obama is personally popular with women – 54% like him versus only 24% that say they dislike him. He more popular than unpopular with men, although only 45% men like him and 30% dislike him. Overall his “likeability” went up slightly from the first to the second poll (from 47% to 49%), and his “dislikeability” fell slightly.
Question 3: Do you personally like Governor Romney?
The good news for Governor Romney is that that largest group (48%) has not yet made up their mind. The bad news is that for those who have made up their minds, more than twice as many dislike than like him. Men dislike him slighy less than do women, but there’s no dressing this statistic up – these are pretty negative numbers. Our observation – while both Romney and Obama are Rationals, Obama’s
experience as a community organizer taught him how to be more personable. Romney, as an investment banker, hasn’t developed that ability. He tends to make “rational” sounding statements that are disconnected from the emotions of voters, making it hard for people to visualize him as someone they might have a conversation with. [note: “rational sounding statements” refers to the way he communicates, and does not imply he either makes more or less sense than other politicians. Rather, most people (the 90%+ that are not NT’s), usually don’t readily connect with NT-speak.]
Question 4: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance at this time?
Clearly, if Governor Romney is to make up the ground between himself and President Obama by November, this chart shows his opportunity. Overall, more people disapprove of Obama’s performance than approve, although again the results are quite skewed between men and women. President Obama actually trended upward on this question in the tracking chart, so it would seem that he is clearly aware of this gap and won’t be idle in addressing it himself.
Question 5: What is your political party affiliation?
This question is included primarily to ensure we don’t get skewed results based on either republicans or democrats (or independents, etc) not being interested in taking the Keirsey Temperament Sorter. The results, happily, show that people of all political persuasions are interested in learning more about themselves. (We already knew this, considering the wide diversity of political opinions at Keirsey, where we all are devotees of “Please Understand Me”).
The bottom line is if the election were to be held tomorrow, President Obama would win a landslide popular vote. With the arcane rules of the electoral college, the election itself may indeed be closer, but overall, Rational (NT) Governor Romney has yet to connect with the American public in a way that previous winners have done, while fellow Rataional President Obama has made this connection. Our advice to Governor Romney: take some lessons on how to act more like an Artisan.