Okay, I’ll admit up front to a bit of hyperbole with the headline, but this month we diced the numbers differently and have a slightly different spin. But once again, before I get into the numbers, to try to head off the typical vitriolic commentary we see on any site that publishes anything connected to the election, here are the disclaimers:
- This is a scientific poll. We select respondents randomly, although there is self selection (as there is in any poll) in that every participant has completed the Keirsey Temperament Sorter-II at www.keirsey.com, and therefore has at least some interest in gaining self-awareness.
- However, we do our best to correct for bias by including temperament in our screening factors. That is, we do not allow for over representation by any of the 4 temperaments.
- Polls represent preferences. In the extremes between the two candidates, Idealist women vastly prefer President Obama, Guardian men prefer Governor Romney. But, there are still plenty of Idealist women who prefer Governor Romney, and Guardian men who prefer President Obama. So, if you post a rant below accusing the poll of being wrong or biased because you personally fall on the short side of a range, you will just look foolish.
- Once again, well reasoned comments that focus on the Keirsey Temperament Theory aspect of the article are welcome. I will delete ad hominem attacks on both the candidates and other posters – to post these, please visit Yahoo News.
Now, on the to the meat and potatoes. First off: the over all numbers really haven’t changed
since we started our tracking poll before the party conventions. The interesting thing to me is that while our numbers have held steady, the national news polls are now trending towards ours. I’m not sure why this is the case, but welcome ideas.
Since the overall numbers are very similar to the last article we published, I’ll point you there for most of the charts. Since this is a tracking poll, I will publish the most current overall chart here. “If the election were to be held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?” Obama is holding steady at 49%. Romney actually narrowed the gap slightly, as he picked up a couple of points. It’s still a very wide margin, though, so I’m thinking the champagne corks aren’t yet popping at Camp Romney.
Let’s get to the interesting part, and what prompted my tongue-in-cheek headline. The biggest gap between the two candidates is between Keirsey T’s and Keirsey F’s. The two candidates run
statistically even among the Tough-minded (T) types, but Friendly (F) types prefer Obama by a very wide margin. In fact, Tough-minded men prefer Romney by 12% over Obama. The chart to the right compares the voting preferences of Tough-minded (T) men vs Friendly (F) men. The difference is quite pronounced.
For Romney: Good news, bad news. While Governor Romney could do quite well on election day if he figures out how to get the male “T” vote out in disproportional numbers (this would be the good news), there is a major roadblock to even making this happen (should some political genius figure out a method in the first place). Even the
Tough-minded males like Obama more than they like Romney. We ask two specific questions each poll that relate to likability: Do you personally like President Obama? Do you personally like Governor Romney? The really really bad news for Governor Romney is shown in the graph to to right, which shows the answers from men for both the “F’s” and the “T’s”.
Any more clever headline ideas out there? Obama scores “F’s” to Pass? No “F’s” for Romney Leads to Failure?